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Lightweight, powerful lithium-ion batteries are crucial for the transition to electric vehicles, and global demand for lithium is set to grow rapidly over the next 25 years. A new analysis from the University of California, Davis, published May 29 in , looks at how new mining operations and battery recycling could meet that demand. Recycling could play a big role in easing supply constraints, the researchers found.

“Batteries are an enormous new source of demand for lithium,” said , the Ray B. Krone endowed professor of Environmental Engineering at �������� and senior author on the paper.

Lithium is a relatively common mineral and up to about 10 years ago demand was relatively small and steady, with a small number of mines providing the world’s supply, Kendall said. Global demand for lithium has risen dramatically — — as adoption of electric vehicles continues.

“Governments need to know where lithium will come from and if we’re going to run out,” she said.

Previous research has focused on forecasting cumulative demand over the next 30 years compared to what is known to be in the ground, said graduate student Pablo Busch, first author on the paper. But opening a new lithium mine is a potentially billion-dollar investment that could take 10 to 15 years to begin production, he said. New mining proposals can be delayed or cancelled by environmental regulations and local opposition.

“It’s not just about having enough lithium, it’s how fast you can extract it,” Busch said. “Any supply disruption will slow down electric vehicle adoption, reducing mobility access and extending the operation of combustion engine vehicles and their associated carbon emissions.”

There are three main sources of usable lithium, in order of ease of extraction: briny water from deep underground; rocks; and sedimentary clays. Half the world’s lithium currently comes from Australia, where it is mostly mined from rock. Parts of South America and the United States have lithium-rich brine in geothermal areas and oilfields, and the United States also has lithium-bearing clay.

A fourth source of lithium is from recycling of old batteries. This is still a relatively expensive process compared to mining, Kendall said.

Modeling supply and demand

Busch and Kendall modeled how the need to open new lithium mines would change over time under varying demand scenarios. They forecast that under the high-demand scenario, as many as 85 new and additional lithium deposits would need to be opened up by 2050. But this could be dramatically reduced, to as few as 15 new mines, through policies that push the market toward smaller batteries and extensive global recycling.

Battery recycling has an outsize effect on the market, the researchers said.

“Recycling is really important for geopolitical and environmental reasons,” Kendall said. “If you can meet a small percentage of demand with recycling, it can have a big impact on the need for new mines.”

Timing is everything. Some new mines need to open to create a flow of lithium that can be recycled. Depending on the demand scenario, recycling would make the biggest difference around 2035.

Efficiency standards for electric cars and improvements to the public charging network to reduce “range anxiety” could also moderate lithium demand by encouraging smaller cars.

Additional authors are Yunzhu Chen and Prosper Ogbonna, both at ��������. The work was funded by grants from the Heising-Simons Foundation and the ClimateWorks Foundation.